Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
